Truth Warrior, on Jun 1 2006, 02:52 PM, said:
Ocelot --
Yours is one plausible, widely held, explanation and scenario ("consensus reality"). There are others that are closer to truth.<IMHO>
Thanks!
CYL
"IMHO" - In my humble opinion - a phrase often used by those who are certain in their beliefs but uncertain in the reasons for their beliefs so as to allude to a non-existent humility in the hope that the reasons for their beliefs will not be scrutinised by those too polite to attack the self effacing.
Please then excuse me for my lack of manners but I shall be scrutinising this opinion of yours humble or otherwise.
Don't get me wrong - I certainly believe in some conspiracies. For example pro-wrestling really is fixed. I'm happiest when my beliefs are plausible - believing the unbelievable is rather a strain. I'm not too bothered if my beliefs are widely held - otherwise I'd follow the consensus beliefs and join an established church. The important thing, to me, about beliefs is that they should stand up to scrutiny. This is of course an ongoing cycle of scrutiny and belief modification.
It goes without saying that there are other beliefs: either potential beliefs or ones actually held by one of the 6 billion souls with whom I share a planet. I know that my beliefs aren't accurate and complete as these are absolutes, which in this context, can be approached but never reached. However the focus here is not the destination but the journey.
So lets improve my beliefs. By which I mean lets scrutinise them so that we can then change them and end up closer to the truth.
As I'm sure you already know Occam's razor states that the explanation of any phenomenon should make as few assumptions as possible, eliminating those that make no difference in the observable predictions of the explanatory hypothesis or theory.
For this reason I choose to dismiss as unlikely the idea of an international conspiracy that was planning the current US domination of the world when the seeds of WWII were being sown.
Allow me to elaborate-
I'd be a fool not to concede that there's plenty of evidence that Hitler was concerned he was being set up to fight the Russians. He signed a non-aggression pact with Russia when invading Poland and split the proceeds with them. The motivations behind this play are a matter of historical record. Yes, he was being set up to fight the Russians and when we ask ourselves "by whom?" the answer comes back loud and clear as a temporary coalition of diplomats led by the British Foreign Office.
Furthermore it's not impossible that further behind the scenes were the obscure machinations of the Illuminati, Masons, Knight Templar, Knight of Saint Columbus, Priory of Scion, Rosicrucians, the Girl Guides or the Ancient and Noble Order of the No Homers. But which group could it be? Could there be no-one at all pulling the strings of these diplomats? Could all of them have been trying to influence events? How to decide...
Well being the kinda guy I am I look at the evidence.
It seems consistent with the simple view.
It also seems consistent with a theory that says that the simple view is an illusion created by a secret organisation which controls the evidence to conceal their involvement.
It also seems consistent with a theory that says that the simple view is an illusion created by a different secret organisation with a different secret agenda which also controls the evidence to conceal their involvement.
It also seems consistent with a theory that says that the simple view is an illusion created by a yet another secret organisation with yet another secret agenda which also also controls the evidence to conceal their involvement.
Well that doesn’t help so I fall back on trusty old Occam - the simplest explanation is the one most likely to be true.
I also agree that America pursued an isolationist policy before WWII for selfish reasons and that at the end of the war were the dominant super power because of these policies.
It's easy to say after the event that their plans came to fruition but whatever the result, one party would have ended up in a better sistuation than the others. Whoever that party was, their actions could have been described as a plan but for that plan to have worked does not require the intervention of a group of power brokers with a centuries old agenda.
So where do I believe the plan came from.
Well apparently these strategies are supposed to be devised by the president and his secretaries of state as informed by the will of the people through the democratic free press. This is what I see as the simple view and it seems consistent with the evidence.
Also consistent with the evidence are many theories that the plan was devised decades before by a group guiding world events.
But which belief to choose and why?
Again I fall back on Occam’s Razor.
I get that history is written by the winners so the issues may have become muddled and obfuscated. I'm sure you acknowledge that this would be the case whether or not such a secret organisation exists
I don't see where these "elite powers" come into it. Who are they? Where did they meet? How did they communicate? What difference did they actually make?
So you see why I believe what I do – Occam’s razor. It's not a tool for determining absolute truth merely the likelihood of truth so I confess it boils down to faith.
What I'm curious about it why you believe what you do. (and what exactly it is that you believe)
I have a hypothesis...
The human mind searches for meaning. It's what it does and it's very good at it. This is partially the reason that we humans have enjoyed such unprecedented power over our environment. In this search for meaning we occasionally discern meaning even if there's none there. Nonetheless the mind gives us positive feedback that we've found meaning. We enjoy believing that we know more than we did before, that our level of comprehension of the universe has increased. If someone elaborates on that theory we can adopt those elaborations and get greater enjoyment. If someone offers an alternative theory it might be adopted or not. The mind's search for meaning will play a large part in whether we're comfortable with such an alternative theory. In the case of conspiracy theories the believer is easily convinced that they know more about the world scene than the non believer. The words and action carry a weight of superior knowledge. When confronted with the antithesis then accepting that new belief would obviously require them to change how much they believe they know about the world. Their world view would lose meaning. The superiority they felt would be lost. Whether these theories are true or not makes little difference to the day to day lives of the majority of people but for the believer to reject the theories would make a large difference to their ego.
I'm sorry that's it's not a more flattering hypothesis - I'm essentially saying that you believe the first thing you were told because I massages your ego to believe you know more than the average person and you're too weak to confront the possibility that you've been duped.
Please prove me wrong by entering debate - I fear a list of links to source material alone will not work - It's you I wish to debate with, not the people who you might have invited to tell you what to think. Besides which my reading list is quite full at them moment and I'd hate to see you cheated of proper intellectual exercise by the simple tactic of being able to swamp me.
Good buy and gobble less.
Ocelot.
A myth is a fixed way of looking at the world which cannot be destroyed because, looked at through the myth, all evidence supports the myth.
-Edward De Bono, consultant, writer, and speaker (1933- )